In a world of noise, price is the sharpest signal.
Prediction markets are having a moment. Polymarket volume is mooning. Kalshi is pushing into the mainstream.
Why the shift? Because the old inputs (polling, pundits, sentiment analysis) are broken. They measure what people say, or what algorithms think people want to hear.
Prediction markets measure what people actually believe, weighted by how much it will hurt if they are wrong. They force you to put your money where your mouth is.
This is the financialisation of truth. When information is infinite and trust is zero, the only reliable metric is skin in the game.
Opinions are free. Bets are expensive. Watch the bets.
