In a world of noise, price is the sharpest signal.
Prediction markets are having a moment. Volumes have surged to an estimated $13-15 billion in 2025 according to Eilers & Krejcik Gaming, LLC. That is a 10x increase from 2024.
Meanwhile, Bloomberg has already integrated Polymarket odds into the terminal right alongside Treasury yields.
This feels less like ‘just more gambling’ and more like ‘the financialisation of truth’.
Why the shift? Because the old inputs (polling, pundits, sentiment analysis) are broken. People lie to pollsters. They perform for social media algorithms. But they rarely lie with their wallets.
This is where the engine matters. I’ve spent time looking under the hood of the iGaming sector. It is an industry like no other- part media, part fintech, part regtech. While the front end looks like entertainment, the back end is a sophisticated machine for information discovery.
And that machine is now eating the world of forecasting.
When you put money on an outcome, you strip away much of the ideology and you are left with the probability.
It’s messy. It’s volatile. But unlike the news feed, it has a cost for being wrong.
Opinions are free. Bets are expensive. Watch the bets.
