Diplomacy is linear. Technology is exponential.
COP30 is over. The communiques are filed. The headlines are fading.
But the real story is not in the negotiating rooms. It is in the cost curves.
The latest data from BloombergNEF and Ember shows a pattern the politics missed.
Solar is not growing. It is bending into a nearly vertical S-curve that makes past forecasts look static.
EV adoption is following the same trajectory. And US coal demand has broken away from every model, falling on a downward S-curve of its own.
None of this means the climate fight is won. We are still up against physics and time.
But it does mean the centre of gravity has shifted.
Regulation moves at the speed of consensus. Economics moves at the speed of manufacturing. In the Exponential Age, that difference decides outcomes.
