2-5 years of experience. That’s the ‘kill zone’ according to Morgan Stanley’s recent AlphaWise AI survey.
They asked CIOs where they expect AI to impact headcount.
Entry-level jobs (0-2 years) actually saw a net increase in demand (+3%). Super-seniors (10+ years) were stable.
But the mid-level, the people with 2-5 years of experience? Net loss: 8%.
Why? Because the 2-5 year band is usually where you get paid to reliably execute complex but bounded tasks. Building the slide deck. Writing the bespoke query. Formatting the report.
That is exactly the capability threshold that frontier models just crossed.
The human role is moving from doing the work to orchestrating the outcome. The premium is shifting from execution chops to domain expertise and risk management.
Stop trying to be a better executor than the model. Start learning to be its manager.
